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an ancient duel of magical skill
working with the advisor and committee
For the first time in thirteen centuries
Set over the course of one school year in 1986
Superforecasting Condition:Very Good an ancient duel of magicalWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was
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